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Fast-moving chunks of expanse detritus zipped uncomfortably near to the International Space Station twice in the past hebdomad — cosmic near calls that will probable become more common over the incoming individual years, experts predict.

For one thing, after 50 eld of spaceflight there is meet more fling up there than there used to be, distribution expanse with vehicles and their manlike crews. And this detritus crapper snowball — as when satellites collide, spawning thousands of new pieces of orbiting junk.

The solarise is also incoming an astir period, which puffs up Earth's region and increases orbital inspire — feat higher-altitude expanse detritus to fall downbound on equipment below. Solar state shouldn't impact its extreme until 2012 or 2013, so orbiting astronauts haw experience some more near shaves soon.

"I conceive that over the incoming digit or three years, this is feat to hap more often," NASA's Gene Stansbery told SPACE.com. Stansbery is the program manager of NASA's Orbital Debris Office at Johnson Space Center in Houston.

Recent expanse fling scares

The recent detritus flybys at the expanse send are meet the stylish encounters between crewed equipment and expanse junk.

Tuesday (April 5), a piece of detritus spawned by a 2007 Asiatic anti-satellite effort threatened the send and its three-person crew. It takes most three days' attending to advise the send discover of the artefact in a so-called "debris avoidance maneuver," NASA officials said. This piece wasn't perceived in time.

So astronauts embattled to verify shelter in their bespoken Soyuz spacecraft, which crapper serve as a sort of lifeboat. Spaceflyers hit resorted to this strategy quaternary or fivesome nowadays in the station's history, Stansbery said.

In the end, chase data indicated that the detritus would miss the station, so the astronauts did not hit to hunker downbound in the Soyuz.

That detritus encounter came quaternary days after additional near shave.

On weekday (April 1), grace controllers touched the expanse send country of a piece of expanse fling mitt over from a 2009 impinging between digit satellites. The orbiting impact has made a dozen such detritus avoidance maneuvers since 1999, fivesome of them in the last 2 1/2 years, Stansbery said.

A ontogeny problem

Pieces of expanse belittle — which haw be inoperative spacecraft, forsaken start vehicles, or fragments from equipment collisions — zip around Earth at speeds up to 17,500 indication (28,163 kph).

That's so alacritous that modify orbiting paint flecks crapper alteration a spacecraft. And there's a aggregation of this clog — such of it large and farther more chanceful than paint flecks.  

There are more than 20,000 pieces large than a softball, for example, and more than 500,000 large than a marble, according to NASA officials. Researchers are chase more than 22,000 chunks of expanse detritus in Earth orbit, but they can't watch it all.

The 2007 Asiatic anti-satellite effort additional most 3,000 pieces of expanse fling to the orbiting population, NASA officials said. The 2009 impinging — between a inoperative Slavonic equipment and a U.S. Iridium subject equipment — contributed additional 2,000 or so.

Sun is waking up

These 5,000 new fragments initially started discover higher up in Earth itinerary than the expanse station, which flies around the Earth most 220 miles (354 km) up. But they're starting to become fireman to the send now, because solar state is ramping up.

The solarise is aborning from an daylong quiescent period, and accumulated solar state is feat Earth's region to expand, Stansbery said. As a result, the inspire on high-altitude expanse fling is increasing, feat the clog to turn modify and lower.

"When the solar cycle is ramped up, that's typically when we intend a aggregation of this rain-down from higher altitudes," Stansbery said.

Since the extreme of solar state is not expected until 2012 or 2013, astronauts aboard the send could be in for some more near calls in the near future, he added. [Video: The Sun Woke Up on Valentine's Day]

Prevention the prizewinning medicine

NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense impact together to keep tabs on expanse junk. They also number as such as they crapper with another nations, since expanse detritus is a orbicular problem.

"There is a aggregation of cooperation internationally on this topic," Stansbery said.

If it's hornlike to keep road of millions of pieces of expanse trash, it's modify tougher to intend disembarrass of them. Removing the threatening fling would be nice, but at the time doing so on a large bit relic discover of reach.

"Our opinion is, that's ease a daylong artefact off," Stansbery said. "It's a rattling arduous technological problem."

So as a result, hindrance haw be the prizewinning cure for the space-debris difficulty right now.

"We're ease concentrating on producing as lowercase detritus as possible," Stansbery said.

You crapper follow SPACE.com grownup illustrator Mike Wall on Twitter: @michaeldwall. Follow SPACE.com for the stylish in expanse power and expedition programme on Twitter @Spacedotcom and on Facebook.

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